Outgrowing the Bradley Effect?

October 12, 2008

"Here is a strange and bitter crop."--from "Strange Fruit" by Lewis Allan

Here in the year 2008 A.D., the extraordinary mountain climb of Senator Barack Obama to his party's nomination for President of the United States is a political marvel. He ran the entire length of the Democratic primary season, winning over a large field, including Senator Hillary Clinton, who had initially been expected to take the prize. Wow. It's still hard to believe he's gotten this far.

Obama is young, energetic, bright, Harvard-educated and well married with two adorable girls. While his record of public service is not lengthy, he communicates a visionary countenance and has a uniquely graceful appeal. He projects strength, dignity and optimism. His charismatic way of expressing his vision for the country's future is inspiring. Oh, yes--he also happens to be black.

Obama is a bona fide hyphenated-American. His father was from Kenya, Africa and his mother was from Kansas, USA. He was born in Hawaii. For reasons understood best by those who have been touched by his personal story, his gift of inspiration and his relentless barnstorming around the country, this man has achieved this penultimate political goal while overcoming the toughest hurdle in politics--that of race--with amazing skill. The question now for the voting public is--and let's be candid--can a black man be elected President?

As of this writing, the polls show Obama with a growing lead over Senator John McCain. Even the so-called "battleground states" seem to be breaking for Obama. If these polling trends hold, it would appear that, short of another 9/11-type attack or assassination (God forbid), Obama is headed to victory as the first black President of the United States.

But there is a little-known polling phenomenon called the "Bradley effect," which will have its supreme test in this contest. According to Wikipedia, the term "Bradley effect," refers to "a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other." In other words, "some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation."

The term comes from the experience of Tom Bradley, popular five-term mayor of Los Angeles (and who was black), who consistently led by several points in the polls for Governor of California right up to election day, but who lost to a white candidate. This same effect was observed in numerous elections in which a non-white candidate lost even though the polls indicated a likely victory. It means that some folks don't want to admit they won't vote for the black candidate, so they lie to the pollster...

If you dislike phone polling, it is tempting to give one a merry chase now and then. The luckless phone solicitor or salesperson that reaches my wife (regardless of the subject) is liable to get almost any contrary or capricious answer that comes to her. Once she told a phone survey for a flooring company that we lived in a cabin in the woods with a dirt floor. And woe betide the pollster calling for a campaign she doesn't care for. She says they deserve it for invading her privacy.

That said, mischievous answers don't account for a variation of as much as 6% between the pre-election poll and the vote count. This was observed in the New Hampshire Democratic primary election earlier this year, when even the exit polling of those who had just voted indicated Obama had the edge, while the actual victor was Clinton.

One might ask if more than a latent racial bias is showing. Possibly the irritation factor against polling in general might have some influence. But the larger question is: Has this country finally matured to the point that voters can look past skin pigmentation in an election with stakes as high as those in 2008?

It's a question that challenges our commitment to walk the talk when we say we believe that "all men are created equal." It is not as common today, thankfully, as it once was to hear someone say that they just can't bring themselves to vote for a black man because he is black. Sure, custom dies hard and is hard to change, but as an older Baby Boomer, I am proud to say that my children and grandchildren are essentially color-blind and their generation is far more comfortable than mine in accepting people for who they are rather than for their race.

In 1937, Abel Merropol, aka Lewis Allan, a Jewish New York high school teacher, horrified at seeing a photograph of a 1930 lynching of two black men, wrote a haunting song called "Strange Fruit," condemning the harsh racism and summary lynching of blacks in the South and elsewhere. Its deeply disturbing lyrics were controversial for contrasting the idyllic pastoral scenes of the South with the ugliness of racist violence. It was recorded by Billie Holliday and became her best-selling number. As only powerful music can do, "Strange Fruit" became one of the reflectors through which the public was forced to confront the inconsistency between American ideals and society's practices. Its lyric reads:

Strange Fruit

By Lewis Allan (Abel Merropol)

© 1937

Southern trees bear strange fruit,

Blood on the leaves and blood at the root,

Black bodies swinging in the southern breeze,

Strange fruit hanging from the poplar trees.

Pastoral scene of the gallant south,

The bulging eyes and the twisted mouth,

Scent of magnolias, sweet and fresh,

Then the sudden smell of burning flesh.

Here is fruit for the crows to pluck,

For the rain to gather, for the wind to suck,

For the sun to rot, for the trees to drop,

Here is a strange and bitter crop.

It has been over 70 years since "Strange Fruit" was written. Harsh as the words read, they still stand as an urgent call for all Americans to abandon their lingering racial prejudices. Americans are passionate about their country being a unique place where civil liberties are assured, the individual is valued on his/her merits and anyone can become President. We are about to test that assertion in the November 4 election.

One recent writer has suggested that this election could introduce an "Obama effect," as a result of the Obama campaign's concerted voter registration drive that may yield a substantial increase in the number of black voters who will vote in this election. Such a turnout might help offset white voter reluctance. Added to the number of Democrats and independents (and even a few Republicans) who are ready to demonstrate their willingness to elect a black to the country's highest office, this could have a net beneficial outcome for Obama.

Regardless of your personal choice for President, keep this in mind: If Barack Obama is leading by several percentage points in the final pre-election polls and still does not win, it could very well mean that this country is irreparably divided along a cultural fault line that may be impossible to heal.

Charlie Crow