September 7, 2009

"Aba, daba, daba, daba, daba, daba, dab,"
Said the Chimpie to the Monk,
"Baba, daba, daba, daba, daba, daba, dab,"
Said the Monkey to the Chimp.
--From "Aba Daba Honeymoon" by Arthur Fields & Walter Donovan

Amazing as it may be, it is possible that President Obama's honeymoon may be the shortest ever afforded a newly-elected President. The wave of good will following his election had the mainstream media and blogosphere going ga-ga over his every move--and their declaration of a "post-racial era" and speculative predictions of the demise of the Republican party were overly optimistic. A month ago there seemed little reason to expect political tides to turn any time soon. No longer. The media now prattle over how many Congressional Democrats could lose seats next year, and speculate on whether Obama will have more than one term.

While much of this talk is typical blather from Washington insiders, something important regarding the national temperament is going on out in the countryside that is hard to describe and difficult to measure. The furor generated by the proposals for reforming health care in America seems to be a stalking horse for broader concerns. It is obvious that the President's vaunted political experts failed to anticipate the firestorm generated by opponents of his plan, even though details were lacking. His decision, while well-intended, to let Congress write the legislation instead of offering a series of Obama Administration bills to address the key issues, appears to have been a strategic mistake. The confusion created by the existence of competing and differing bills in both houses was exacerbated by the August Congressional recess, which allowed opponents of change (as well as political mischief-makers) plenty of time to attack from all directions.

It appears that the campaign to kill or neuter Obama's plan is taking its toll. It hasn't helped that the Democratic Party, in its customary undisciplined manner, has allowed itself to be divided at both ends of the spectrum, thus fragmenting the President's support and weakening his ability to pass legislation with a unified Democratic congressional majority. The so-called "Blue Dogs," who posture as conservatives, claim to want to balance the federal budget first (and who, oddly enough, appear to be heavily influenced by large contributions from the health insurance industry) and stalled the legislation in the House. The progressive/liberal wing of the party threatens to walk if there is no inclusion of an option that would assure access to health care for everyone through some form of "public option." In the meantime, opponents are having a field day stirring up passions in "town meetings," spooking members of Congress, raising doubts and ranting about imminent socialism, without offering any solutions of their own.

In short, the health care reform issue has swarmed on Obama. What is really happening is that this issue has become a lightning rod for channeling a broader public unease--a perception that the government has gotten too large and perhaps can't be trusted--incited by dishonest and disingenuous radical right wing media agitation and Rovian Republican propaganda. It has been easy for opponents to fan the flames of fear and doubt with bald-faced lies and deliberate distortions of fact, to the detriment of a free exchange of ideas.

Public perceptions have the tendency to become truisms, often in the absence of factual affirming evidence. But make no mistake--there is indeed a rising tide of doubt linked to broader concerns: The bank bailout feels like a capitulation to Wall Street, and there is still a bank credit crisis. The economic "stimulus" money has been seemingly meted out in dribs and drabs--and its beneficial effect is masked by the fact that much of the money has gone to support projects that were already planned and which would have been postponed. Further unease comes from the gut feeling that the war in Afghanistan is starting to look and feel like Iraq redux. And, while the economy may be in emergent recovery, very few new or reinstated jobs have followed. Worst of all, there is concern that the federal deficit's growth is spinning out of control.

Whether these perceptions are justified or not, they stoke the apprehension that the magic bullets are not working, and that things may get worse. Although Obama is making major strides in restoring US credibility overseas, domestic tensions abound, and solutions that sounded so cool and pat during the campaign now are braced by the harsh realities of politics. Thus, a worried public is vulnerable to being stampeded into a fear that the cure may be worse than the disease.

Assuredly, these crises were mostly inherited. The causes are complex and bona fide solutions will take years. However, fair or not, enough time has passed that the incumbent must accept ownership. Obama ran a clever campaign on a platform short on specifics and long on posturing as a bold leader. It worked. He rode in on a rising tide of expectations that he would fix the mess left by the cynical dismantlers, political hacks and ideologues who were such poor stewards. Instead of denigrating government, he appealed to the best instincts of Americans to join in service to others, a la JFK.

However, it's a whole lot harder to govern than to campaign. Obama had a full plate when he hit the White House, and now he must satisfy the expectations of those who look to him to remedy the many ills of American society. Being accustomed to instant gratification and political flim-flam, the masses may not have the patience to wait long enough for solutions that really solve the problems. It will take more than personal charm and smooth talk. Bitter medicine is still required to effect a cure, and it will take the full measure of Obama's legendary powers of persuasion to convince the public to take it.

Obama's leadership skills are now being tested. It is not unfair to ask why, if the health care reform issue was his highest domestic priority, he chose to put its fate in the hands of a divided Congress, even though he had a Democratic majority. Obama now may very well be faced with losing the issue over the potential defection of a significant faction from his own party, depending on the direction he takes.

Time will tell, and soon, whether the President can turn this political hornets' nest around. A key indicator will be if Congress comes back and passes a compromise that really makes health care truly available to all without souring those who have pushed for genuine changes. If not, the wolves who already smell blood will close in, the vultures will begin to circle and the all-too-brief honeymoon will have run its course.

Charlie Crow © September 7, 2009